Peer Reviewed
Chapters in books​
Other Publications​
Unpublished papers​

Peer Reviewed

  • The economic consequences of military rule in Myanmar
    Most studies of dictatorships and civil conflicts are based on cross-country analysis focussing on civil wars which are symptomatic for political fragility. This paper focusses on one country, Myanmar, where the military has been ruling unintermittingly for over 60 years. The paper first summarises the background of military rule in Myanmar, then formulates some conjectures and finally tests them empirically.
  • The Tale of Two Economies: Inflationary Dynamics in the Euro Area and the US in the Context of Uncertainty
    In recent years, the global economy has been hit by a sequence of severe shocks that affected the two largest economies, the USA and the Euro Area, severely. Uncertainties about the future abound. While the challenges are similar for both economies and the policy tools resemble each other, they apply to different economic landscapes. What can they learn from each other? This paper looks at the basic structural facts, the nature of uncertainty shocks, and the efficiency of policy tools in the two economies. The key to understanding recent developments is uncertainty. This paper argues that the channel through which uncertainty influences inflation, wage cost, and unemployment is the markup firms charge to cover their cost of capital. While the measurements of uncertainty are uncertain, adding a proxy for uncertainty can improve the estimates of the basic New Keynesian model. The Federal Reserve Bank has been more successful because it operates in a more integrated capital market. In the Euro Area, uncertainty is higher than in the US and this could make disinflation in Europe more painful in terms of unemployment.
  • A monetary theory of endogenous economic growth
    This paper presents a model where credit money is the engine of endogenous growth, because the claims for interest on debt generate liabilities that need to be matched by higher assets and income, even in the steady state.
  • Varieties of Ideology in the Euro Area Reassessing Europe’s open society and its enemies. (with Davide Orsitto)

    The convergence of political narratives in the Euro Area is a necessary condition for the sustainability of the monetary union. We measure the evolution of ideological preferences in Europe over half a century in a two-dimensional space. In addition to the classical right-left cleavage, we define a cultural dimension that is inspired by Popper’s distinction between open and closed societies and Dumont’s opposition of individualism against holism.

    We find that political preferences, as expressed by people voting for party programs, have converged since the end of the Cold War, which also coincides with the Maastricht Treaty in 1992. Thus, the institutional framework set up for the management of the monetary union has contributed to greater political coherence inside the Euro Area, while ideological convergence outside the Euro Area is significantly weaker. Germany is the leader of a conservative group of member states, France of a progressive group. Compared to Anglo-Saxon societies, the Euro Area is highly centrist, which makes the cooperation across policies easier.

  • Profits, Wages and Inflationary Dynamics in the Euro Area and the US in the Context of Uncertainty
    A sequence of severe shocks has brought inflation back to Europe and America, but unemployment is still at record low levels. Is higher unemployment required to bring inflation down? The challenges are the same for both economies across the Atlantic, the policy tools resemble each other, but they apply to different economic landscapes. What can we learn from each other? Who has been more successful? The paper looks at basic facts, the nature of shocks, and the efficiency of policy tools. It turns out that the Phillips curve whereby higher unemployment lowers inflation has a different role in Europe than in the US.

    The key to understanding recent developments is uncertainty. The paper extends the standard New Keynesian model to measures of uncertainty. It argues that the channel through which uncertainty influences inflation, wage cost and unemployment is the markup firms charge to cover their cost of capital. The Federal Reserve Bank has been more successful because it operates in a more competitive market for goods and capital. The Euro Area lacks a fully integrated capital market with a benchmark euro bond and the institutions for setting up a coherent macroeconomic policy stance. This will make disinflation in Europe more painful in terms of unemployment.

  • P. Esposito, S. Collignon, S. Scicchitano: Immigration And Unemployment In Europe – Does The Core-Periphery Dualism Matter? Working paper 3/2019, School of European Political Economy LUISS, March 2019. (Download in PDF)
    Abstract : In this paper, we assess the relation between immigration and unemployment for a sample of 15 EU countries between 1997 and 2016. We estimate separate effects for Northern and Southern Countries based on the differences between the two groups in terms of skill intensity and flexibility of labour market adjustments. We use a panel Error Correction Model to assess the direction and persistence of the impact of immigration on domestic unemployment in the short and in the long run. In the long run, immigration is found to reduce unemployment in all peripheral-countries. In core countries, on average there is no long-run impact of immigration on unemployment due to a substantial heterogeneity, but country specific estimates provide evidence that immigration might have reduced unemployment in France, Germany and the UK. As for short-run dynamics, for the EU15 as a whole we find a confirmation of the result that immigration reduces unemployment, while the evidence of a core-periphery dualism is less pronounced.
  • Negative and positive liberty and the freedom to choose in Isaiah Berlin and Jean-Jacques Rousseau. In: The journal of philosophical economics: reflections on economic and social issue, Vol. XII Issue 1, Autumn 2018.
    Abstract : Berlin has made the famous distinction between negative and positive liberty. For many liberals, negative liberty is modern individual liberty manifested in markets, while interference by the State is a form of positive liberty. Berlin was also repelled by Rousseau’s concept of the general will, which he considered as a form of collectivist holism. The paper argues that this philosophy is a mistaken interpretation of Berlin’s two concepts of liberty and of Rousseau’s general will. In a simple model of individual and collective choice under conditions of bounded rationality, it is shown that positive and negative liberty are interdependent. The collective choices made under positive liberty can be modeled as the stochastic version of Rousseau’s general will, provided that liberal democracy enables the conditions of free public deliberation. In that case, the individual freedom cherished by Berlin is compatible with positive liberty.
  • I have presented this paper in a working seminar at the ECB (12.04.2018).
    Download here in Pdf (Submitted to review) – in Pptx
  • Stefan Collignon and Sebastian Diessner: The ECB ’s Monetary Dialogue with the European Parliament: Efficiency and Accountability during the Euro Crisis? Journal of Common Market Studies, 54.6 November 2016, pp. 1296–1312
  • European Sovereign Bailouts, Political Risk and the Economic Consequences of Mrs. Merkel, (with Piero Esposito and Hanna Lierse), Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP) 4.3, 2013
  • Fiscal Policy Rules and the Sustainability of Public Debt in Europe; International Economic Review, 53. 2, May 2012
  • A Theory of Stochastic Consensus; Center for European Studies (CES), Harvard University, Working Paper, Spring 2006 (with Majid Al-Sadoon) Working paper, Harvard CES.

Peer Reviewed  –  Chapters in books  –  Other Publications​  –  Unpublished papers​

Chapters in books

Peer Reviewed  –  Chapters in books  –  Other Publications​  –  Unpublished papers​

  • Private Union Bonds as an Exit from the Greek Drama; in: Karamouzis, N. and G. Hardouvelis, 2011. From the international to the European and Greek crisis: What will the future bring?, Livanis Editions, Athens (2011). [ΑΠΟ ΤΗ ΔΙΕΘΝΗ ΚΡΙΣΗ ΣΤΗΝ ΚΡΙΣΗ ΤΗΣ ΕΥΡΩΖΩΝΗΣ ΚΑΙ ΤΗΣ ΕΛΛΑΔΑΣ: Τι μας επιφυλάσσει το μέλλον.]
  • Here is a PDF Download of the full report : 10 years of the Euro : New Perspectives for Britain, G. Bishop, W. Buiter, B. Donnelly, W. Hutton (Eds.), Published by John Stevens
    See also the pro-euro Campaign blog: e4u

    The Lisbon strategy, macroeconomic stability and the dilemma of governance with governments (Or why Europe is not becoming the world’s most dynamic economy), pp.161-193, in: The Future of EMU, (edited by Leila Simona Talani), Palgrave Macmillan, january 2009.

  • The EU and Global Competition: A Comparative View. in: K. Duffek, E. Fröschl, T. Mörschel, R. Cuperus (eds.) 2006. The European Union, a Global Player? Wien: LIT Verlag/Forum Scholars for European Social Democracy.

  • Preface. In: Guy Verhofstadt. 2006. The United States of Europe. The Federal Trust, London. (Download preface in PDF)

  • Globalisierung, Regionalismus und die politische Ökonomie von Ideologien. In: B. Fritz und K. Hujo, 2005. Ökonomie unter den Bedingungen Lateinamerikas; (Festschrift für Manfred Nitsch) Vervuert Verlagsgesellschaft . Download full text in PDF

  • Unternehmen und Banken auf dem Weg zur Währungsunion: Die “Association for the Monetary Union of Europe” als Motor eines Transnationalen Konsenses; (mit Daniela Schwarzer) in: R. Eising/B. Kohler-Koch (Hrsg.). Interessenpolitik in Europa; Nomos Verlag, Baden-Baden, 2005.

  • Europa am Ende? – Wirtschaftsverfassung und demokratisches Defizit;  in: Christa Randzio-Plath (Hrg): Wege aus der Krise – Plädoyer für eine europäische Wachstums- und Investitionsoffensive. Nomos Verlag, Baden-Baden, 2004.

  • Le fédéralisme budgétaire dans la zone euro;  in: Maxime Lefebvre (ed.), Quel Budget Européen à l’Horizon 2013 ? Moyens et politiques d’une Union élargie.
    Ifri, Paris 2004. (Télécharger le chapitre ou le livre en PDF).

  • Three Year into the Euro: the next step for Europe. In: Scharrer, H.-E. and R. Caesar (eds.), European Economic and Monetary Union: An Initial Assessment, Nomos Verlag, Baden-Baden, 2002.

  • Human Rights and the Economy in Burma; in: Robert Taylor, Burma, Political Economy under Military Rule, C. Hurst & Co, London, 2001.

  • Deficits, Debts and the Stability Pact; in: Paul J.J. Welfens (ed.): European Monetary Union. Transition, International Impact and Policy Options; Springer Verlag Berlin 1997.

  • Monetary Integration between economies with different financial strucures; in: Which way ahead for Financial Markets: The German or the Anglo-American Model, American Institute for Contemporary German Studies, Elsevier Science, US, 1998.

  • Die EWU und ihre internationale Bedeutung; in: Europäische Währungsunion und Kapitalmärkte, Friedrich Heinemann und Michael Schröder (Hrsg.), Nomos-Verlag Baden-Baden, Germany, 1997.

  • Standort DM – Über den Zusammenhang von Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und Wechselkursen; in: Uwer Jens (Hrsg.), Langfristige Strukturprobleme der deutschen Wirschaft, Nomos-Verlag Baden-Baden, Germany, 1994.

  • On widening the EMS to Central and Eastern Europe; in: The Monetary Economics of Europe – causes of the EMS crisis, edited by Ch. Johnson and S. Collignon, Pinter Publishers, London, England, 1994.

  • Droits de l’homme, investissement et developpement africain; in: Ph. Hugon, S. Quiers Valette, G. Pourcet, Instabilités africaines, Presse Universitaire de France, Paris, France, 1994.

  • From Stabilization to Growth: Reconsidering Trade and Foreign Investment; in: Hansjörg Herr, Silke Tober and Andreas Westphal (ed.), Macroeconomic Problems of Transformation – Stabilization Policies and Economic Restructuring, Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd., Aldershot 1994.

  • An Ecu Zone for Central and Eastern Europe: a supportive framework for convergence; in: Ray Barrell (ed), Economic Convergence and Monetary Union in Europe, London, England, 1992.

  • Über das Auslösen von Wachstumsprozessen in Osteuropa; in: Jürgen Backhaus (Hg.), Systemwandel und Reform in östlichen Wirtschaften, Metropolis Verlag, Marburg, Germany, 1991.

Other Publications

  • Stefan Collignon and Piero Esposito. Wage Competitiveness in Luxembourg. A Study engaged by the Government of the Grand Dutchy of Luxembourg In respect of the Project Wage Imbalances in the European Labour Market. London, 29 September 2016. LSE consulting.
  • Natural Unemployment, the Role of Monetary Policy and Wage Bargaining.  A Theoretical Perspective. 2005.
  • France and Germany: Economic stagnation as a common destiny? Paris 2005. To be published in conference volume by Centre Saint-Gobain pour la Recherche en Economie.
  • Fiscal Policy and Democracy in Europe ; paper presented at Monetary Workshop, Österreichische Nationalbank, Vienna, 2004 ; published as ÖNB Discussion paper No. 4, “A Constitutional Treaty for an Enlarged Europe: Institutional and Economic Implications for Economic and Monetary Union”, November 2004. (Download in PDF). Download of the Powerpoint here.
  • The Role of Monetary Policy in Setting the Natural Rate of Unemployment; Workshop Quantitative Prognosen realwirtschaftlicher Effekte der Geldpolitik, 24. Oktober 2003, Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Arbeit in Berlin.French version published as : Les conditions politiques et institutionnelles d’une coordination des politiques économiques dans l’Euroland, in: Revue d’Economie Financière, Trois ans de Politique Monétaire Européenne, 2002, No. 65.
  • Germany: Which Way to Turn? in: The World Today. Vol. 58 Number 8/9, August/September 2002.
  • Nach der Euro-Einführung. Der europäische Bürger braucht eine Europäische Republik, in Internationale Politik nr. 1-57, Jan 2002 . Download in PDF
  • Post Euro: quo vadis Europa? is a shorter English version in the transatlantic edition. (Download in PDF).
  • Economic Policy Coordination in EMU: Institutional and Political Requirements, Center for European Studies (CES), Harvard University, May 2001.
  • Two years into the Euro: the next step for Europe; Financial Markets Group, LSE, 2001.
  • Policy Coordination in Euroland: the next step; in: Loukas Tsoukalis (ed.), Globalisation and Regionalism. A double challenge for Greece; Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy, Athens 2001.
  • Why Do Poor Countries Choose Low Human Rights? Some Lessons from Burma; Habilitationsvortrag, Freie Universität Berlin, 1999.
    (Sumary and download here)
  • Währungsblöcke und Integration der Asiatischen Staaten ; in. Vierteljahreshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung, DIW Heft 1, 69. Jg 1999.
  • Does the Central Bank Set the Natural Rate of Unemployment? AUME Working Paper, No 30, October 1998. (Summary and download here) .
  • Ouyuan de Weilai (The future of the euro); in: Shijie Jingji Yu Zheng Zhi ( Journal of World Economy and Politics), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, February 1999.
  • Sustainable EMU; in: The International Spectator, Volume XXXIII, No. 2, Rome, Italy, April-June 1998.

  • The Sustainability Report, Association for the Monetary Union of Europe, Paris, France, February 1998  (5 papers):

    Re-printed in : Economia Internazionale 1999 – Numero Speciale, Supplemento al Vol. LII, Num. 1, Febbraio

  • Die internationale Bedeutung der Währungsunion; in: Integration 2/98, Institut für Europäische Politik, Bonn, Germany, April 1998.

  • La régionalisation monétaire et l’impact des monnaies émergentes en Asie; in: La régionalisation de l’économie mondiale: quels enjeux pour les agents privés et les décideurs publics?, Commissariat Général du Plan, Paris, France,1998.

  • Der Euro als Ausweg aus der Krise; in: WSI Mitteilungen 5/1997, Hans-Böckler-Stiftung (Hrsg.), Bund-Verlag, Köln, Germany, May 1997.

  • The Burmese Economy and the Withdrawal of European Trade Preferences; in: EIAS Briefing Paper No. 97/02, Brussels, April 1997. (Download in PDF).

  • Exchange Rate Stability in the Transition to a Single Currency: Problems and Tentative Solutions; Report requested by the European Commission, March 1995.

  • Die Europäische Währungsunion als Chance; in: Wirtschaftsdienst – Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, HWWA-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Nr. 11/98, Hamburg, Nomos Verlag, Baden-Baden, Germany, November 1995.

  • La coopération monétaire et l’ajustement structurel en Afrique sub-saharienne: Le rôle des arrangements régionaux de paiements. En collaboration avec P. Cerruti et Ph. Hugon, (CERED/ LAREA), Paris, France, 1993.

  • Krise im Europäischen Währungssystem oder: Wie gewinnt die Europäische Währungsunion ihr Vertrauen zurück?; in: P. Bofinger, S. Collignon, E.M. Lipp (Hrsg.): Währungsunion oder Währungschaos?, Gabler Verlag Wiesbaden 1993; english translation in: De Pecunia, Vol. V, No. II, 1993.

  • Normes écnomiques, instabilité monétaire et développement africain; Research Paper, Larea/Cered: Université Nanterre, Paris, France, 1991.

  • Chancen und Risiken einer europäischen Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion; in: Berliner Debatte INITIAL, Heft 3/1991.

  • A proposal for the creation of an Ecu Zone for Eastern Europe; in: De Pecunia, Dec. 1991; Italian version: Una Zona Ecu per l’Europa dell’est; in: Revista di Politica Economica, Rom, 1992.

Peer Reviewed  –  Chapters in books  –  Other Publications​  –  Unpublished papers​

Unpublished papers

  • Monetary Mercantilism and Economic Growth in East Asia (download in PDF here)
    Abstract : It is often recognised that competitive or undervalued exchange rate levels matter for economic development. However, in addition to the price and cost competitiveness, volatility affects investment because volatile exchange rates create uncertainty. Governments can use foreign exchange management to stabilize exchange rates at a competitive level in order to foster economic growth. However, this policy, which I call monetary mercantilism, prevents the development of domestic financial markets. As a consequence, monetary mercantilism renders emerging economies fragile and vulnerable to financial crisis. The paper shows that emerging economies in Asia have been following monetary mercantilist strategies, even after the financial crisis in the late 1990s.

  • Wage developments in Euroland or: the Failure of the Macroeconomic Dialogue.  (Download in PDF here).
    Abstract : With the creation of the euro, wage bargaining has become Europeanized. Price stability is driven by unit labour costs. The experience of the last 10 years has shown that on aggregate wage bargaining has supported monetary policy. However, national wage settlements have diverged and there is only very weak evidence of convergence to the euro aggregate. This poses the problem of how to remedy the situation. The Macroeconomic Dialogue was instituted to facilitate macroeconomic stability. It has failed, because of its confidential nature, which prevents the emergence of European-wide policy deliberation. It is suggested that the MED should be transferred from the Council to the European Parliament.

  • Deliberation and Stochastic Consensus. (Download in PDF here).

  • Long run effects of short-term non-neutrality of money. 2007.

  • Stefan Collignon and Omar Serrano. The Political Economy of Right-wing Populism and Euroscepticism in Switzerland. March, 2007 (Download in PDF).

    Abstract : We provide an explanation for Euroscepticism in Switzerland – and for the rise of the political right throughout the decade of the nineties – by looking at the effects of fundamental changes in the economy in the context of globalization and Europeanization. These effects are measured by comparing two Federal referendums: the 1992 referendum on the European Economic Area (EEA) and the Schengen/Dublin referendum of the year 2005. Both referendums are used as a measure of attitudes in favour or against European integration. We use the cleavage of tradable/non-tradable goods as an indicator for globalization effects. Previous studies have identified several cleavages present in Swiss society, and their effects on referenda, but no in-depth study considers the impact of economic factors on foreign policy related referenda. This study reaches the conclusion that the structural changes induced by globalization are relevant throughout the decade of the nineties for explaining the results of the 1992 referendum and possibly also in the rise of the political right. As the economy has successfully – albeit slowly – adapted to new conditions, the cleavage seems to have faded away.

  • Long run effects of short-term non-neutrality of money – A paper prepared for Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK) in der Hans- Böckler-Stiftung, 2007. (Download in PDF)

    Abstract : The long run neutrality hypothesis of money (LRN) states that monetary policy can only affect real economic variables in the short run, but not in the long run. However, this hypothesis depends crucially on the role assigned to the labour market.
    This paper looks at long run effects resulting from capital accumulation that shift the labour demand curve and the Phillips curve. It is shown that an investment function based on Tobin’s q can explain long-term shifts in the capital stock, which respond to short-term interest rates set by monetary policy. Empirical evidence supports the theoretical model.

Peer Reviewed  –  Chapters in books  –  Other Publications​  –  Unpublished papers​

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